The Biden administration is convinced Iran is going to attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week and is preparing to counter it, three U.S. officials told Axios.
Why it matters: U.S. officials say they expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their Apr. 13 attack on Israel — but potentially larger in scope — and it could also involve the Lebanese Hezbollah.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran is going to retaliate for Haniyeh’s assassination.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has also vowed to respond to the Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday that killed his top military adviser.
The Biden administration is concerned it may be more difficult to mobilize the same international and regional coalition of countries that defended Israel from the previous Iranian attack because Haniyeh’s assassination is in the context of the Israel-Hamas war, which has drawn sharp anti-Israel sentiments across the region.
- The attack in April was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian facility in Damascus that killed a top Iranian general.
- Several Arab countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, either helped shoot down Iranian and Houthi drones or allowed the U.S. and Israel to use their airspace to intercept threats.
Behind the scenes: The U.S. intelligence community started receiving clear indications on Wednesday that Iran is going to retaliate, a U.S. official said.
- Two U.S. officials said it could take the Iranians and their proxies a few days to coordinate and prepare an attack on Israel.
- Another U.S. official said the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command are taking similar preparations to those they made ahead of the attack in April.
- The official said the preparations involve U.S. military assets in the Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red sea.
- “We expect a few rough days,” the official said.
- A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community expects Iran will launch a wide-ranging missile attack on Israel.
What they’re saying: The Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a press briefing on Thursday that Israel’s international partners boosted their forces in the region in order to help countering a possible attack.
- White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a briefing with reporters that the risk of a broader war in the Middle East remains today.
- He said the Biden administration is making intensive efforts to deter against a broader war and to deescalate the situation through diplomacy.
- The Pentagon declined to comment.
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Driving the news: Nasrallah spoke Thursday at the funeral of his top military adviser, Fuad Shukr, and said the organization is going to conduct a significant response against Israel in the coming days.
- Nasrallah also said he expects Iran to retaliate for the assassination of Haniyeh as well as other pro-Iranian groups, including the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
- “We are not talking about separate fronts anymore. This is an open campaign on all fronts and there is no doubt [the war] has entered a new phase,” he said.
The latest: Several U.S. and international airlines, including United, Delta, Lufthansa and Swiss, announced they are suspending flights to and from Israel.
- The Israeli military is on high alert ahead of a possible retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday held a meeting to assess the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command preparations.
- “We are prepared for what may come. Israel is in a state of very high readiness for any scenario — on both defense and offense. We will exact a very high price for any act of aggression against us from any quarter whatsoever,” he said.